Every other week, we gain Altitude with the founders, operators, dealmakers, allocators, marketers, and technologists shaping tomorrow. Engage with Successful Companies and Founding Teams | VC, PE, M&A, and Credit Transactions | Growth Metrics, Benchmarks, Charts & Data | New and Emergent Technologies | Founder Productivity Hacks, and more... You can learn more about Cirrus Capital Partners at www.cirruscap.com
The Case for Founder-Led Pipeline, Shifts in the Private Credit Market, and DeepSeek: the AI That Knows Too Much?
Published 17 days ago • 9 min read
Altitude Newsletter
The Case for Founder-Led Pipeline, Shifts in the Private Credit Market, and DeepSeek: the AI That Knows Too Much?
Welcome back! Shame on us; we are a week late in releasing Edition 25, please forgive us! 🙏 The past couple weeks have been exhillerating to say the least; we facilitated numerous term sheets and transactions, and launched our new website! (more on that below...)
Here’s a bird's eye view of what's on the docket:
> Pipeline Generation (The Lifeblood You’re Neglecting)
> Cirrus Updates (and a new website!)
> What's Happening
> Founder Resources
> Fresh Fundings & Term Sheets
The mission remains the same: every other week, we “gain Altitude” with the founders, operators, dealmakers, and technologists shaping tomorrow.
Pipeline Generation (The Lifeblood You’re Neglecting)
Most founders think their biggest sales problem is closing deals. What if it’s not? What if it’s pipeline?
You can’t close what you don’t have. And most startups - especially in SaaS - are running dangerously low on opportunities. According to The SaaS Barometer, pipeline coverage is down 18% YoY, with fewer qualified leads entering the funnel. That’s not just a dip... it’s a red flag.
Why? Because pipeline generation isn’t something you can “fix later.” It’s a lagging indicator of survival. The deals you’re working today are a product of work done months ago. If your pipeline is weak now, you’ll be starving by Q2.
Here’s the mistake I see over and over:
# 1 -Founders and execs obsess over win rates but ignore pipeline health. They celebrate closing at 30%—but 30% of what? If you’re only working 10 deals, you’re still losing.
# 2 - Sales leaders over-rely on inbound. It’s easier to work what comes in than to hunt for new deals. But inbound-only growth is a path toward a slow death. The best teams are outbound-first.
# 3 - Pipeline isn’t a sales responsibility but a company-wide initiative. If marketing isn’t feeding the top of the funnel, if founders aren’t creating demand through content, if sales isn’t outbounding, you’re playing defense. That’s a losing game.
Simple gut check: Look at your pipeline coverage. If it’s below 3x your revenue target, you’re gambling on those mega deals. A tough bet to wager your survival on.
So, you can't just talk about or track pipeline. You have to manufacture it. Here’s how:
# 1 - Marketing should obsess over demand gen, not just lead gen. Leads without intent do no good. # 2 - Sales needs outbound discipline -a pipeline that’s built, not just received. # 3- Founders should be pipeline accelerators whether through content, partnerships, or direct intros.
Most companies don’t have a closing problem. They have a pipeline famine. You don’t scale on luck or finding that 'perfect client.' You scale on volume. Fix that first.
Most co's don’t have a closing issue, they have a pipeline famine. Fixing your pipeline is the #1 difference between growth vs starvation in 6 mos.
Private credit is getting picky. The game has changed: lenders are prioritizing safer, higher-quality assets, with Senior Secured First Lien loans jumping from 63% of portfolios in 2019 to 82% in 2024.
Here’s what that signals for founders and dealmakers:
✅ Raising debt is still doable, with emphasis on strong fundamentals. Lenders want security, and speculative deals will struggle. ✅ Expect more covenants, not less. Borrowing won’t be as easy as it was in the low-rate era, in years prior.
Lock in financing while capital is available, but structure your deal to align with this new lender mindset. Capital is still flowing, but generally to those who play by the new rules.
Private credit is de-risking—First Lien allocations jumped from 63% in 2019 to 82% in 2024, signaling a stronger focus on senior-secured debt.
Debt Markets Are So Back (With Some Conditions) Here’s What It Means...
Institutional loan activity hit $1.4T in 2024, fueled by a surge in refinancings and repricings as companies lock in better terms. This isn’t distress-driven—this is smart money locking in before the window tightens.
Refinancings and repricings hit record highs in 2024, signaling a prime window for securing favorable debt before conditions shift.
For owners, this is a prime window to secure debt on favorable terms. With private credit stepping up as banks pull back, now is the time to leverage financing for M&A, growth, or balance sheet optimization.
DeepSeek, China’s latest LLM, just outperformed GPT-4 Turbo in key benchmarks. But the real story, in my mind, really isn't its capabilities, it’s what this signals for AI dominance and global data power plays.
Data is leverage. China’s AI sector has an edge: near-unlimited, centralized data. Unlike the West, where privacy laws and corporate silos slow progress, China can train models at scale without resistance.
Regulation won’t stop it. U.S. chip restrictions aim to curb China’s AI growth, but let’s be real... policy can only slow progress, not stop it.
The tinfoil hat take: Is DeepSeek already plugged into proprietary Western data via open-source loopholes? If so, China’s AI acceleration could be happening faster than anyone expects.
On the surface, AI is about intelligence. Behind the curtain, it’s about control. And in 2025, that control is shifting fast.
It's official: AI is straight-up warping entire industries. Most founders are focused on how AI can save time. That’s small thinking. Top 1% owners see how AI nukes old business models and rewires customer expectations overnight.
Look at content. A few years ago, agencies charged $10K+ for ad copy. Now? AI pumps out good enough marketing at scale, crushing pricing power and forcing agencies to justify their value beyond the words on a page. The same is happening in design, legal, SaaS, you name it.
So here’s the real question: What happens when your competitive edge gets automated? If your moat is based on being faster or cheaper, AI will eat your lunch. Here's the main ways it's changing the game:
And so, the game now is about differentiation.
--> Brand, reputation, community - AI can replicate content, but it can’t replace trust. --> Curation over creation -AI floods the market with noise; winners will filter and refine it. --> Building proprietary data - If AI trains on the same info as everyone else, where’s your edge?
Look to see where AI is bending the rules and play a new game in a new way.
Stephen Yiu, manager of the £1.3B Blue Whale Growth fund, argues that the London Stock Exchange Group should drop its legacy exchange operations and fully embrace its data and analytics business. Why? The exchange arm makes up just 3% of revenue, while its Refinitiv-powered data division—bolstered by a Microsoft partnership—drives two-thirds of earnings.
For founders and investors, this move signals a bigger shift: data is the #1 asset. Traditional financial infrastructure is becoming secondary to the platforms that process and monetize information. The takeaway? Whether you're in fintech, SaaS, or media... your business isn’t just what you sell. It’s the data you control.
Madeline Mann, founder of Self Made Millennial, shared her strategy of designating Tuesdays and Fridays as meeting-free days to enhance productivity. By consolidating meetings into Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, she minimized context-switching and created uninterrupted time for deep work. This approach allowed her to focus on tasks requiring significant concentration, such as writing marketing copy, leading to more efficient task completion. While this strategy may not suit roles necessitating frequent client interactions, it highlights the benefits of allocating specific days for uninterrupted work to boost productivity.
Consider implementing meeting-free days to enhance focus and efficiency. By scheduling meetings on specific days, you can allocate uninterrupted time for deep work, leading to improved productivity and better outcomes for tasks that require significant concentration.
These are resources that may be worth checking out. (Not an endorsement, just a “hey, you might like this”).
Book: Make Work Fair by Iris Bohnet and Siri Chilazi
Released this month, Make Work Fair provides data-driven strategies to promote gender equality and fairness in the workplace. The authors suggest practical processes, such as anonymizing CVs and advocating for paid caregiver leave, to create a more equitable environment. This book is essential for leaders aiming to implement effective diversity and inclusion initiatives. 📖 Grab it here
Book: 99% Perspiration by Adam Chandler
This new book critiques the American belief that hard work alone determines success. Chandler delves into societal impacts and historical myths, offering a nuanced perspective on the factors that contribute to success. 📖 Learn more
Fresh Fundings 🥧
Recent Equity Rounds
💰 ShopMy Secures $77.5 Million in Series B Funding - ShopMy, a leading e-commerce platform, has raised $77.5 million in a Series B funding round. The investment aims to enhance the platform's capabilities and expand its market reach.
💰 Systole Health Launches with $2 Million Pre-Seed Funding - Boston-based Systole Health has initiated operations with a $2 million pre-seed funding round. The company focuses on tech-enabled group virtual care solutions for women's heart health.
💰 Elucent Medical Secures $30 Million in Growth Capital - Elucent Medical, headquartered in Eden Prairie, MN, has obtained $30 million in growth capital from Trinity Capital Inc. The funds are intended to support the company's expansion and development initiatives.
Recent Credit Transactions (January)
💳 $90M Facility Increase – Trinity Capital - Trinity Capital expanded its credit facility by $90 million, bringing total commitments to $600 million. KeyBank led this upsize, enhancing Trinity's capacity to support growth-oriented companies.
💳 $3B Financing Partnership – Apollo and Standard Chartered - Apollo and Standard Chartered formed a strategic partnership to provide up to $3 billion in financing for global infrastructure and energy transition projects, leveraging their combined origination and distribution capabilities.
💳 $110M Facility Increase – Consumer Portfolio Services - Consumer Portfolio Services increased its credit facility with Citibank by $110 million, bringing the total to $335 million. This expansion aims to bolster the company's consumer lending operations.
2024 saw $1.4T in new-issue loan activity, a 60% jump over 2021, making it the biggest year on record for leveraged finance. But, M&A-related loan issuance remains below historical averages, meaning there’s still a capital gap to be filled (and private lenders are stepping in).
--> Private credit now dominates deal flow, especially as banks pull back from riskier lending. --> CLO issuance hit record levels, signaling that liquidity in credit markets is strong, but for how long? --> M&A is poised for a rebound in 2025, as private equity firms with pent-up deal volume look to finally deploy capital.
For founders and investors, this is a pivotal moment to lock in strategic financing before spreads start widening again.
💳 $9M ABL Revolving Facility for a leading company in the facility maintenance space
💳 $3M Revenue-Based Financing for an innovative healthcare software provider experiencing rapid growth
💳 $7.2M Senior-Secured ABL Term Loan for a private company in the aviation sector to finance a new fleet of private aircraft
Recent M&A
♟️ Monte dei Paschi Bids €13.3B for Mediobanca - Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) has launched a €13.3 billion all-share takeover bid for Mediobanca, aiming to consolidate Italy’s banking sector. The deal proposes 23 MPS shares for every 10 Mediobanca shares, with projected €700M in annual synergies.
♟️ Diversified Energy Acquires Maverick Natural Resources for $1.3B -Diversified Energy has agreed to acquire Maverick Natural Resources for $1.3 billion, expanding its natural gas footprint in the Permian Basin. The deal includes $700M in assumed debt and boosts Diversified’s total valuation to $3.8B.
♟️ Intercontinental Exchange Buys American Financial Exchange - ICE acquired American Financial Exchange to strengthen its short-term interest rate solutions and expand its credit-sensitive benchmarks. The deal enhances ICE’s role in U.S. financial markets.
New Businesses for Sale
💼 SaaS Learn-to-Read Platform - 20 Years in Business A fully automated SaaS platform specializing in early childhood literacy, used by thousands of teachers worldwide. The business generates diverse revenue through subscriptions, eBooks, and ad sponsorships, with an 84% profit margin. With 14,163 organic email subscribers and a strong seasonal spike in demand, this is a prime opportunity for a hands-off, high-margin business in the education sector. See on Flippa.
💼 Dental SaaS Business - $400K Asking Price, 13% ARR Growth A 14-year-old SaaS platform helping dental professionals manage patient records, referrals, and X-rays securely. With 350+ customers across dental practices, universities, and DSOs, the business boasts a 0.7% monthly churn rate and a $2,000+ lifetime value per customer. Currently run with only 2-3 hours of weekly workload, it presents a low-maintenance cash flow opportunity or a prime growth play for a buyer willing to invest in marketing. Asking price: $400,000. See on BizBuySell.
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Every other week, we gain Altitude with the founders, operators, dealmakers, allocators, marketers, and technologists shaping tomorrow. Engage with Successful Companies and Founding Teams | VC, PE, M&A, and Credit Transactions | Growth Metrics, Benchmarks, Charts & Data | New and Emergent Technologies | Founder Productivity Hacks, and more... You can learn more about Cirrus Capital Partners at www.cirruscap.com