Everyone likes to talk about fundamentals until the mood shifts. Then it’s all just fear in a nicer suit.
April made that crystal clear. On April 2, the U.S. government announced sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs: a 10% blanket on all imports, with even higher rates targeting China, Mexico, and others.
The reaction was immediate.
The Dow fell over 4,000 points in two days. Confidence evaporated across global markets.
One tariff announcement. No bombs dropping. No banks collapsing. And still, $4 trillion in value vanished off the Dow in 48 hours.
And why? Well, it wasn’t supply chains breaking. It wasn’t balance sheets blowing up. It was something simpler: People got nervous. It was belief — the invisible foundation under the entire system — cracking in real time.
That’s all it takes. The stories holding the market together got punched in the gut, and all the spreadsheets and earnings calls in the world couldn’t stop it.
If you built your business assuming the world would stay calm and cheap forever, were you truly building, or just borrowing time?
This was a reminder: Business models built for the easy years are not built for years like these.
FearOS
Confidence collapsed faster than anyone expected.
One tariff announcement landed, and within 48 hours, global markets reeled.
Consumers pulled back spending. Investors slowed new deployments. Banks tightened credit without needing permission or policy shifts.
The numbers are flashing warning signs:
- 75% of Britons expect the economy to worsen.
- Only 23% of Americans view the economy as healthy.
- 45% are preparing for a full recession within the year.
Surface-level indicators — jobs, rates, earnings — stayed mostly stable. But the story underneath them changed. And when stories change, behavior changes faster than any spreadsheet can model.
Markets don’t move on fundamentals. They move on confidence first — and confidence is just fear in remission.
What most people miss is that fear doesn’t have to be logical to be real. Once it enters the system, it compounds on itself faster than capital can reprice.
The deeper truth most won’t say:
- Liquidity is a mood, not a constant.
- Money flows where belief is stronger than fear.
- "Systemic risk" is triggered by memory.
Every cycle plants seeds of the next reaction. The last generation of founders, investors, and policymakers all remember what fear felt like in 2008 and 2020.
Those memories move cash long before fundamentals force anyone’s hand.
The most dangerous moment is not the sell-off itself but the shift in how people start to frame decisions even after the market technically “stabilizes.”
Risk tolerance lingers — in hiring, in lending, in M&A, in how founders price opportunity versus survival.
Belief is the only real asset that compounds without friction. When belief weakens, the whole system runs slower — no matter how strong the paper numbers look.
Scarcity focuses the operator
Scarcity rewards the builders who already operate with clarity.
It highlights the companies that prioritize execution, tighten burn proactively, and build customer depth that lasts beyond market cycles.
Operators who thrive in contraction environments master three things early:
- Preserving margin at every level of the business
- Closing customers without relying on discounts or desperation
- Capturing attention without trading away profit
Scarcity forces you to sharpen your edge.
The companies holding momentum now built their systems around survival, not spectacle. They tuned operations to cash flow first, trusted retention over reach, and viewed capital as an accelerant momentum.
Liberation Day tariffs surfaced what was already true: Businesses built on cost discipline, organic loyalty, and execution fundamentals have leverage, even when belief falters around them.
Operators who stay solvent through contraction periods are building models strong enough that the market's behavior becomes almost irrelevant.
Alternative, non-dilutive funding moves from optional to strategic
Flexible capital strategies are moving to the center of the playbook.
Founders who prioritize control over dependency are widening their advantage with every shift in the market.
Access to non-dilutive structures — revenue-based financing, working capital facilities, equipment-backed lines — strengthens resilience and opens timelines that are not dictated by venture pacing or public market sentiment.
Adaptation now lives at the balance sheet level. The operators building durable businesses are restructuring capital stacks with the same precision they once reserved for product and customer acquisition.
Capital no longer serves as a reward for momentum. It serves as a lever to sharpen it.
The founders who understand this are designing businesses that operate on their terms — independent of liquidity cycles, investor emotions, or external volatility.
What we can learn from this
The Liberation Day tariffs surfaced a deeper reality about markets.
Confidence, liquidity, and valuations move on belief first — not fundamentals.
Companies built with flexible cash flow, disciplined cost structures, and internal resilience are positioned to operate across cycles without waiting for external validation.
Founders who design around volatility will unlock faster momentum, better ownership, and cleaner optionality at every stage.
Capital discipline compounds faster than revenue when belief thins.
Survival belongs to those who control their timing, not to those who depend on the market’s mood.
The next decade belongs to the operators who engineer resilience into every layer of their business from the start.
And what it all means for you...
➞ Capital is (slightly) harder to get now. VCs are pausing, lenders are pulling back a bit. It’s not so much about you... they’re just scared. So, operate like no outside money is coming. Cut the burn and extend the runway. Gain tighter control on your spending.
➞ Markets move on confidence. Strong numbers don’t matter if belief disappears. One headline can freeze deal flow overnight. Owners need to manage the narrative and look like a sure thing. Safety sells in a fearful market.
➞ This is the new normal. Slower spend, tighter credit, less risk-taking. Even if stocks bounce, that caution sticks around. The founders who adjust early design companies that work in any market (not just bull runs). That’s how leverage gets built quietly.
Newsworthy stories
- Tesla Recalls 400,000 Cybertrucks Over Critical Brake Issue. TLast month, Tesla issued a voluntary recall of 400,000 Cybertrucks after a braking system defect was identified, further damaging consumer trust at a time when Tesla's valuation has already slid 35% year-to-date. » More «
- U.S. GDP Growth Slows Sharply in Q1 2025. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP grew at just 0.8% annualized in the first quarter of 2025 — a major slowdown compared to 3.1% growth at the end of 2024, as tariff impacts and weakening consumer confidence ripple through the economy. » More «
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Global Banks Brace for Liquidity Crunch Post-Tariffs. In the aftermath of the Liberation Day tariffs, multiple banks — including Citi and HSBC — are warning of tightening liquidity across emerging markets and advising clients to secure lines of credit now before terms worsen. » More «
Financial markets
📊 Markets and Assets At-A-Glance
| Asset / Market |
Value |
Vibe Check |
| SOFR Rate |
4.39% |
➡️ |
| WSJ Prime Rate |
7.50% |
➡️ |
| S&P 500 |
5,664.75 |
📈 |
| Dow Jones |
41,100.79 |
📈 |
| Gold (Oz Spot) |
$3,281.40 |
📈 |
| BTC |
$97,340.38 |
📈 |
| Non-Farm Payroll +/- |
+151K |
Neutral |
| US Unemployment |
4.2% |
Neutral |
Meaningful market transactions
📈 Equity
Nourish, a healthcare startup, raised $70M in a JP Morgan-led Series B, valuing it at $1B+ »
Doroni Aerospace, an eVTOL company, secured $30M for its personal flying car, the H1-X »
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💳 Credit
Wells Fargo extended a $100M revolving line of credit to Chomps, a U.S. meat snack brand »
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♟️ M&A
Columbia Banking System to Acquire Pacific Premier Bancorp for $2B »
KKR Agrees to Acquire OSTTRA for $3.1B »
Global Payments Inc to Acquire Worldpay for $24B »
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Recent Cirrus term sheets & transactions
$1.4M Term Loan & Revolver to a growth-focused, residential services company
$15M Senior Credit Facility to a specialty finance company to grow their balance sheet origination
$3M Delayed-Draw Term Loan Facility for a D2C consumer goods company
$500K AR Financing Facility to a specialty contractor
$2.5M Junior Secured Term Loan to a SaaS technology company
$1.5M AR Financing Facility to a company in the retail consumer goods segment; refinancing their existing senior lender
